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ALPHA ADDER

http://www.alphaadder.blogspot.com

"Empirical studies of the fluctuations in the price of various financial assets have shown that distributions of stock returns and stock price changes have fat tails that deviate from the Gaussian distribution [Mandelbrot (1963,1997), Pagan (1996), Campbell et al. (1997), Cont et al. (1997), Guillaume et al. (1997), Pictet et al.(1997) especially for intraday timescales [Cont et al. (1997)] These fat tails characterized by a significant excess kurtosis, persist even after accounting for heteroskedasticity in the data [Bollerslev et al. (1992)]. The heavy tails observed in these distributions correspond to large fluctuations in prices, "bursts" of volatility that are difficult to explain only in terms of variations in fundamental economic variables [Shiller(1989)].2”

In plain English; we have "crashes" larger and more frequently than what can fit into conventional, commonly accepted economic theories.

The Systemic Risk Counseling model utilizes and integrates large events so as to be full process.

The successful results of the model in the past four years are undeniable.

View More Recent Posts

  • THAT IS IT FOR NOW

    Posted on Tuesday December 8th, 2009 at 09:49 pm

    THAT IS IT FOR NOW.   In the process of accepting outside funds from an investor, and will not be publishing  any more.  Very, very excited. Been working towards this for a long time. With the end of November closed out all ...

  • How much does Dubai have off of its balance sheet?

    Posted on Friday November 27th, 2009 at 07:09 am in europe, dubai, mobius, transition, volatility, msci, out of the money puts, in the money puts, msci em

    Interesting times.  As I said in my last post.  Transition not over.  Because of that, the hit we will take from this unforseen event might hurt.  As Tommy Boy would say; "That's going to leave a mark".  Also, as I said in ...

  • Dell and the expectations say a lot.

    Posted on Monday November 23rd, 2009 at 07:01 pm

    Transition is not over. Dell deals in a commodity people! New leaders must emerge, before we truly head into a new bull market. Do not count the expected (and pre-documented-see entries 07&08) monster bounce we had as a bull market. It was the pe...

  • NEW FRONTIERS OF VOLATILITY TO EXPLORE! Jay-z stackin chips, and I\'m all in!

    Posted on Thursday November 12th, 2009 at 07:40 pm

    Alpha Adder moves forward, currently researching volatility on Gold, oil, and currencies. Will be adding comments on the systemic risk specific to each of these new additional asset classes. Trading options on S&P 500 volatility has been particul...

  • SYSTEMIC RISK COUNSELING

    Posted on Tuesday June 16th, 2009 at 12:21 pm in systemic risk counseling

    ALL FUTURE ENTRIES REGARDING RESULTS OF SYSTEMIC RISK MODEL WILL BE PUBLISHED ON SISTER BLOG SYSTEMIC RISK COUNSELING.SYSTEMIC RISK COUNSELING DIRECTLY ADDRESSES THE DEFICIENCY OF CURRENT ECONOMIC THEORY. THAT BEING:"Empirical studies of the fluctuat...

  • Thanks for stopping bye. Important entry dates.

    Posted on Monday January 5th, 2009 at 03:51 pm

    Thanks for stopping in. The important entries are:1) The first on 8/22/05 gives you a (partial) background on the rationale behind the model. skip to 2) 07/09/07 through 1/7/08 where you can clearly see when I identified "Criticality" based on the...

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