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Riding the Commodity Bull Market
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I am tracking and blogging about my commodities trading account. I began the account with $2K, and my goal is to turn that into $1,000,000. I track every trade in the blog, share reasoning behind each trade and position, and update the positions weekly.
Recent Posts Tagged With 'us dollar rally'
Comparing the 2008-09 Stock Market With the Great Depression\'s 1st Leg Down
This epic stock market rally has done exactly what it was supposed to do - it's retraced about half of the losses from the previous crash. It's got folks feeling comfortable again - while maybe not outright enthusiastic about things, they now believ...
Does News Drive the Markets? A Closer Look at This Old Wive\'s Tale
With the markets at a potential inflection point (an inflection point down, in my humble opinion), I thought it'd be fun and instructive to revisit a topic we've noodled on a bit lately.Does News Actually Drive the Financial Markets? It's common know...
New Reports of the Dollar's Demise: Greatly Exaggerated?
From London's The Independent comes the latest report of the dollar's impending implosion - in an article fittingly titled The Demise of the Dollar.In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along...
Dollar vs S&P Index - A Near Perfect Inverse Correlation
These days, diversification is pointless. You only need one position in your portfolio - because all the markets are trading together. To illustrate this point, check out this chart of the S&P 500 vs. the Dollar Index since Spring 2008:The dolla...
Using the Wall Street Journal to Gauge Investor Sentiment
I thought it’d be fun to peruse the Wall Street Journal to see if we could glean some insights into current investor sentiment. Mainstream business publications are famous for (unintentionally) signaling tops and bottoms in markets – but is this...
Dollar Up, Everything Else Down - Here We Go Again?
I saw a familiar sight on the charts today - green for the dollar, and red for just about everything else. This was a very common sight last fall and winter.This currency picture, courtesy of Barchart.com, used to be an all-to-familiar one.Then when...
Jeff Clark Agrees: It's Time to Buy the Buck
Last Sunday I wrote that I thought it was time to go long the US dollar. Investor sentiment is near record low levels, which usually means the price has nowhere to go but up, at least in the short term.When making a contrarian pick like this, you us...
It's Time to Go Long the Buck
Three weeks ago, we discussed the possibility the the dollar was bottoming and poised for a major rally.My reasoning was that:Sentiment was overwhelmingly negative on the buck. I noticed that even traditional contrarian investment sources appeared t...
Why Commodity/Shipping Weakness Could Predict Next Leg Down in Stocks
Interesting times in the markets. US equities have now completed a standard fare "Fibonacci retracement" off of the March 6 lows. Now, where to from here?Bulls and bears alike conceded that a strong rally was quite probable. Now that it's happened...
Robert Prechter: Dollar's Hit a "Major Bottom"; Get Ready for a Deflationary Depression
Here are a couple of very insightful video interviews with Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International:Part I - Prechter believes the dollar has bottomed, because of the formation in the Elliott Wave pattern, and also the extreme bearish sentiment ...
All Green Across the Screen Today...The Rally Lives On
The screens were flashing all green today, as our noted "all or nothing" trade resulted in everything moving up today!Except for? The dollar, of course!This screen shot from Barchart.com reflect a bull market in, well, everything!Of note, Treasuries...
Dollar, Yen, Australian Dollar Rally Today - Where to Next?
It's another "all or nothing" day in the markets - with equities down, the US Dollar and Japanese Yen are, of course, up. This time joined by - surprise - our old friend, the Australian dollar (ugh - got chased out of that position too early :( )Loo...
Return on Capital? How About Return OF Capital!
I've come to the conclusion that in roughly March of 2008, the general tide shifted from inflation to deflation for the first time since World War II. Since that shift, everything we have seen has been pretty much deflationary.Oil is half of where i...
Last Call on the Pound Sterling Rally?
It might be time for us to grab a pint...and short one of our favorite whipping boys once again.The British Pound - the only currency that may actually be sicker than the US dollar (two turds circling the bowl really) - looks like it's recent rally m...
Turn Back the Clock...It's Another "Flight to Safety" Day
Mama said there'd be days like these...though you may have thought they were a thing of the past.With the DOW dropping 200 points on the day, and commodities down across the board, the "flight to safety" positions stood tall, just as they did during ...
This Ain't Your Grandpa's Deflation...This Week in Commodities
Common wisdom holds that depressions are inherently deflationary. The United States in the 1930's. Japan in the 1990's and 2000's.Combine a depression with other deflationary factors going today in the US - demographics, deleveraging, falling ass...
Jim Rogers: The US is About to Have a Currency Crisis
If you have the majority of your savings in US dollars, this may be the most important insight you ever hear from Jim Rogers.In an interview with Bloomberg from this morning, Rogers said:“We’re going to have a currency crisis, probably this fall ...
