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Target Audience: Political junkies; decision makers for overseas assets; professionals who mitigate political risk in North America.
Content: US/Canada politics and its relations to macro economic environment; International politics; Fundraising & a
Recent Posts Tagged With 'election 2008'
Bradley Effect Or McCain Effect?
Is Bradley Effect still there? How can we find out? If we check the last polls before the election, Obama was having double digit leads. However, his popular vote is 53% against 47%, 6% lead. Here is a list of polls I gathered: Pol...
What Makes President Obama Not A Sure Thing
Are these undecided voters the key to this election? As of today (2008.11.03), Obama has 228 electoral votes where the state has >10% polling margin and 50 electoral votes where the state has >5% polling margin. The difference less than 5%...
Obama, 1 Up Over Karl Rove
Voting lines are long.problems/index.html. Not much news about voter intimidation. But then this is early voting, not the big day. Is America ready for the big news that is only 11 days away? Some people are preparing for the transitions to t...
Electioneering 102: A Lesson From Green Party of Canada
The federal election in Canada concluded on 2008.10.14. The incumbent party won another mandate. There are a lot of interesting content in this election to fill the media. However, for the purpose of Electioneering, this story may not make the ...
Powell, What Makes A Good Endorsement?
An endorsement is similar to an advertisement. The endorser would want to make a difference. What is the difference to an election? Win or lose. You can win by 1 vote (W) or by a landside. They all give you the presidency. An endorsement th...
Market Concurs Pollsters
It is now less than 3 weeks to the voting day. Electoral vote spread is 128 (Obama vs McCain : 286 vs 158). Even if McCain takes the rest of the toss up states, he is still 34 votes behind (94 toss up). Short of Osama (not a typo) surprises, op...
Financial Crisis Now Carries A Political Premium
The financial crisis in America has over rode the presidential election to carry the most political risk in the global economy. While the American presidential election is a cyclical event and its political risks are more within control than many o...
What Is The Price Per Vote To Pass The Bailout Bill?
CNN says more banks are likely to fall. It seems like that 700B will get plenty of asset to buy. Now, how much did the additional votes cost to get the bill? Taxpayers For Common Sense compiles a list of 15 pet projects within the bailout bill...
Bailing Out Van Gogh Traders?
The senate has passed Bailout bill, an important bill by itself and even more so during an election season. Simultaneously, Americans are debating about the next President as well as the centennial financial crisis. The debate will continue: abou...
Did You Want A Rejection?
The bailout plan got voted down: 205 vs 228. The House still cannot get a full house for such an important vote. Someone please check if those 2 seats are vacant. Are you upset that it got rejected? Some people are upset (S&P has fallen &...
Don’t Get Too Excited About $700B Bailout
How consequential is this bailout plan? For intra day trading activity, it matters. For anything beyond ½ year time frame, it is doubtful. $700B is about 6% of total US mortgage market ($12T). Paulson’s announcement did stop the s...
McCain: Statesman? Coward?
Obama now has 228 electoral votes versus McCain’s 174, after a month of conventions, bailouts, bankruptcies and an announcement of $700B bailout plan. With only 40 days to go before the voting day, McCain suspends his campaign to work on a soluti...
$700B buys a Wall Street PATRIOT ACT
Warren Buffet has called the credit derivatives the “financial weapons of mass desctruction”. To combat this financial weapon of mass destruction, Bush administration is getting another Patriot Act with a price tag of $700B. Pentagon runs abo...
Where Do Mccain And Obama Want To Go With This?
Lehman was still crying about loss of the Korean (KDC, sold at SEO, not in any of the US exchanges) sale last Friday. And now, poof, gone! Merrill is now a subsidiary of Bank of America! Certainly buying Merrill is a smarter buy when one compar...
