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William M. Briggs, Statistician

William M. Briggs, Statistician

http://wmbriggs.com

An examination of good and bad statistics, forecasting practices, particularly in the fields of business & risk management and global warming & climate models. A subtle look into the philosophy of science.

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  • Homogenization of temperature series: Part II

    Posted on Thursday December 10th, 2009 at 08:11 in philosophy, climatology, good stats

    Be sure to see Part I Aside: counterfactuals A counterfactual is statement saying what would be the case if its conditional were true. Like, “Germany would have won WWII if Hitler did not invade Russia.” Or, “The temperature at ou...

  • Homogenization of temperature series: Part I

    Posted on Wednesday December 9th, 2009 at 10:08 in climatology

    Be sure to see Part II Introduction Time to get technical. First, surf over to Willis Eschenbach’s gorgeous piece of statistical detective work of how GHCN “homogenized” temperature data for Darwin, Australia. Pay particular attent...

  • San Francisco Chronicle can’t make up its mind about global warming

    Posted on Tuesday December 8th, 2009 at 14:28 in climatology

    In today’s print edition, above the fold, is the item: Climate change: The Obama administration declares that global-warming from man-made greenhouse gases endangers health. Note carefully that it has declared and not proved. At the fold is a p...

  • Pajamas Media Post: ‘The Copenhagen Diagnosis’ Fails Logic 101

    Posted on Tuesday December 8th, 2009 at 07:54 in climatology

    Head on over to Pajamas Media for today’s post. Thanks to David Steinberg for providing the title....

  • Protesters gather in Copenhagen. Why?

    Posted on Monday December 7th, 2009 at 10:16 in climatology

    Be sure to visit again tomorrow, for another article in this series. Time is up. Time to fight passion with calm reason. That always works, doesn’t it? Those thousands of “activists” and riled up protesters who have infected Denma...

  • Gotta fear them crazy GIs

    Posted on Sunday December 6th, 2009 at 12:03 in Culture

    An AP article claims “Militia movement resurfaces across U.S.” (link here; though this story differs from the one I read in the San Jose Mercury News). How did they come to this frightening view? They were told it was so via a press rel...

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