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"Green New Deal", the game of creating a "Clean tech bubble."

Posted by wehireu • 11/26/08 • Subscribe to this Discussion [RSS] • Report This Topic
Topics: clean tech, green new deal

I think Mr. Obama is going to play a classic game. He is setting to have the government create a similar craze with clean technology as the internet. The game is to accelerate investment into clean technology.

If you read his plans for jump starting the economy, a lot of it has to do with rebuilding the electric grid (a smart grid), improving mass transportation, investing in renewables and "green collar" jobs, retooling the automobile industry to produce more efficient cars, and energy efficiency and green building initiatives.

I think it will have mixed results. It will jump start the economy, but at the same time, it will create a wildly speculative craze with winners and losers.

His promise of $15 billion for 10 years into renewables is a portion of it.

User Comments

11/26/08

clioandme

Isn't that "wildly speculative craze" an unavoidable byproduct of innovation in a capitalist society? And won't that entail investment and jobs? In other words, I'm not really seeing how that is a down side, at least at a macro level. But you seem to recognize that already.

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11/26/08

satijournal

$15 billion for 10 years is pocket change for the government, but it will provide a jump start for a new green energy economy. Right now, most green energy technologies are too expensive. Even the Prius is not profitable for Toyota, even though there is a big demand for them.

So the government needs to step in until technology advances to the point where things like solar power, fuel-cells, plug-in electric vehicles, wind power, etc... are more affordable. The first step is the "smart grid" where solar and wind farms can be located in places where they're most efficient and supply power to more of the country.

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11/26/08

satijournal

... As far as this becoming the new "dot-com craze," it's far from that. The dot-com economy was based on intangibles. There will be a substantial number of real products as a result of the promotion of green energy technologies.

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11/26/08

MidwestMom

As an aside, our local community college is starting to offer "green" technical training as a major (wind and solar engineering)... There are places in this country where the upcoming green economy is being anticipated, not with speculation but with preparation and training.

I think that's a really good thing.

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12/09/08

Aoi

An overlooked problem in the "green new deal", particularly with the power grid, is the "tragedy of the anticommons". So many people have rights or claims to land and resources involved in building anything big that it can take years and billions just to clear the legal hurdles before you can break ground on, for instance, a new set of power transmission lines.

Separately, R&D plus the market are going to have to work out which of the many green technologies can compete in the real world. No one knows how long that will take, but several years would be a reasonable estimate.

So I hope all this "greening" goes well, but it's not hard to see where some of the bumps are going to be. Fortunately, there are infrastructure projects ready to go right now, just as soon as funding becomes available. Those I expect will start in Feb. '09.

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1. 12/09/08
  
  xmarks
  
  Lots of greening can happen today and without majofr infrastructure. For example, incentivize businesses to add solar panels to their rooftops.
2. 12/09/08
  
  satijournal
  
  That's true. There's a lot of surface area on shopping malls, office buildings, and warehouses that could house solar panels and generate electricity.
3. 12/10/08
  
  xmarks
  
  with few infrastructure or legal issues. Most of the electricity would be used on site. Small scale green energy can also be done on a shared based in communities, that is micro hydro adding a percentage of power to a riverside housing complex. A lot can be done without mega projects.
4. 12/10/08
  
  Anok
  
  Yeah, we have green incentives here too - the state will kick in a portion of money for anyone (individual or business) who opts to use solar panels.
5. 12/10/08
  
  xmarks
  
  Upping those incentives over a defined period, say 24 months, would be a great way to get capital moving, put people to work, and green our energy supply. Additionally, a company that has a benefit like solar panels on their factory will have one additional reason to NOT move their factory to another location or overseas.
6. 12/10/08
  
  Anok
  
  Good points!
  
  The solar power they use will also lower costs, another incentive to stay here. (think of how many things can be run on electricity).
12/11/08

MidwestMom

A really excellent article from Thomas Friedman in the NY Times, "While Detroit Slept" deals with the issue of green energy and the car industry. It seems there is a good amount of innovation *not* coming out of the United States.

Here's the link:
www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/opinion/10friedman.html?partner=permalink&exprod...

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