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- December 15th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Inflation in the UK
The UK EconomyThe doubts about the future of the UK economy have been multiplying of late, prompting one commentator to seek to defend the economy, arguing that there remain competitive advantages in…
- December 8th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The Crisis is Steadily Moving Towards Denouement
First of all, apologies for the lack of posts recently. I have simply not had the time to post.Are others seeing that there is a slow and steady unwinding of the economic situation? There now appear t…
- November 21st, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The King Canute Economy
I have had a good day in browsing through the economic news, as I found three very interesting articles which together represent a consistent theme (although I say lucky, I mean only in the finding bu…
- November 13th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Who Might Run Industrial Policy?
It has been a while since I have last written a post, and the choice of subject matter for this post has proven to be a difficult decision. On the one hand, there is the ongoing tremors in the financi…
- November 2nd, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The UK: Individual Liability for Government Debt
My original plan for this post was to highlight the disconnect between the stock market and the underlying state of the UK economy. However, there may be the start of a panic in stock markets, so it m…
- October 30th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
US Economic Growth Deconstructed
I had planned a review of the UK economy and stock market, but I was overtaken by the news that US economy ‘grew’ by 0.9 percent in the third quarter. A fairly typical explanation for the growth c…
- October 24th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The US - The Real Economy and the False Economy
Do you remember the stress tests for the banking system in the US? They were the subject of negotiations by the banks with regards to the outcomes, making them remarkably relaxed stress tests. There w…
- October 16th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The Underlying Size of the US Economy
I would like to start this post with a hypothetical item of government spending, such as building an extension to a government building, and track some of the money that might be spent. The example us…
- October 9th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The Economic Policy of the Next UK Government
At this moment in time, it appears that (barring any major blunders) the UK will elect Conservative government at the next election. Several readers have asked me to discuss Conservative economic poli…
- October 7th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The Great 'Shift' - China and the West
We are living through one of the times in history when a major and irrevocable shift is taking place. It will be a time that will be the subject of controversy amongst historians and, no doubt, there…
- September 30th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Bank of England Bills and Printing Money
Regular readers may remember that, some time ago, I sent some questions to the Bank of England regarding quantitative easing (QE - printing money), following an offer by the deputy governor to answer…
- September 22nd, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
China and Treasuries - A Puzzle
Perhaps some readers may think that I am obsessed with China as, once again, China is the central subject of this post. A long while back I speculated on what China might do as the current economic cr…
- September 16th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
When will the Money Printing Stop?
Having already posted today, this is more of a note than a full post. I have noted recently that the UK inflation figures yet again defied Bank of England expectations of deflation. Whilst their recen…
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Special Drawing Rights - What are they?
I have had a very interesting contribution to the blog regarding IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) in a comment, with the commentator also sending some additional information by email. The point made…
- September 8th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The Rise and Rise of China
From the early point in this blog, I have emphasised the importance of China in the world economy, and this view is now shared by the mainstream. China has rapidly moved from being an important elem…
- August 31st, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The Dire Position of the US Economy
Yes, cheer up everyone, the 'Great Recession' has come to an end. Or so says the New York Times, in yet another positive article:Even as evidence mounts that the Great Recession has finally released i…
- August 25th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The $US - Some Musings...
I made an error just under a year ago, in predicting an early collapse of the $US; I predicted a collapse by April of this year. When the collapse failed to materialise I was forced to look at my mode…
- August 19th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Monetization of Government Debt Continued in the UK
The Telegraph's economics editor's latest article headlines that 'Mervyn King Wanted to Buy Half of the UK Government Debt Market'. It is a headline that, of itself, is worth some contemplation. That…
- August 15th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The Waiting Game
The headlines have now largely disappeared, and the financial crisis sits quietly humming away in the background. The sense of collapse, the immediacy of the crisis seems to have dissolved and economi…
- August 6th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
A Recovery in the UK?
A recent comment on the blog suggested that perhaps there was not much to write about, as the UK economy appears to be recovering. Bearing in mind that such stories are now appearing in the press, it…
- August 2nd, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The Deflation Scare
I have several times in this blog questioned why it is that deflation might be a bad thing, including in my discussion of a new form of money. Having presented my arguments, I thought it might be usef…
- July 25th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Reforming Money - Fixed Fiat Currency
IntroductionI have long promised a discussion of a system of fixed fiat currency, and the discussion that follows is my first attempt at this। It is a very long discussion, and I hope that you will…
- July 17th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Bleeding the 'Real' Economy to Support the Financial System
I am in the highly unusual position of agreeing with Krugman (or at least in part), the Nobel winning economist who writes in the New York Times. He has just recently written an op-ed on the subject o…
- July 15th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Questions for the Deputy Governor of the BoE
I have long been arguing that the Bank of England's purchase of gilts with printed money (so called quantitative easing - QE), has supported the UK bond market and that the Bank of England has effecti…
- July 11th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The Danger in GDP Measures
Some time ago I read an interesting paper from within the field of academic economics. The article, by Ole Rogeburg was written pre-economic crisis, and was titled 'Taking Absurd Theories Seriously: E…
- July 7th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The RMB as a reserve currency - an update
I have been discussing the steady progress of China in setting up the RMB as the reserve currency for a long while, and have proposed that it is fast moving towards success (though success is not guar…
- July 4th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Economic Reality - The World Got Tougher
This post is, in part, inspired by some comments on recent posts. There seems to be an ongoing denial of the reality of the current economic situation, and there is a refusal to accept quite how broke…
- July 2nd, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
More on Printing Money in the UK
I'm afraid that I will be remaining on the subject of quantitative easing (QE - printing money). My last post detailed exactly why the only justification for the policy is the funding of UK deficits,…
- June 25th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Quantitative Easing - Monetizing UK Government Debt
It is a long time since I have taken a look at quantitative easing (QE -printing money). Long term readers of the blog will know that I have have offered objections to the policy from the outset, and…
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Mervyn King Identifies the Problem, then Avoids the Solution...
Some of the readers may have seen a Telegraph article that summarises some of the key points from Mervyn King, the Bank of England Governor, from the May Inflation Report. His thinking is very much in…
- June 17th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Smuggled US Bonds in Italy - An Update
The Smuggled Bonds I am getting a considerable amount of traffic to my post on the smuggled bonds in Italy, and you may wish to read the original and the comments at the end if you have not already do…
- June 14th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The Battle for Resource...
I have long argued that the big issue underlying the financial and economic crisis is the relationship between labour and the availability of commodities in relation to the increasing supply of labour…
- June 12th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Japan Secretly Selling Smuggled $US bonds?
I need to be very clear before writing this post that it is highly speculative, if not fanciful. As such, I would caution readers to view the post as some wild speculation.The cause of the speculation…
- June 11th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Inflation, Deflation and Money
The post that follows is a slight change of direction. I started one post (see below) and found the question of money was nagging at me. In particular, there were some interesting comments on the subj…
- June 8th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Treasury Yields and Currency
At the moment there is a great deal of talk about the falling prices of treasuries. The explanation for this appears to fall into two camps; one explanation is that there is perception that the worst…
- June 4th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Green Shoots of Reality
As time moves forwards, it is possible to see that the mainstream media eventually catches up with the underlying realities of the current economic situation. It is interesting to watch how they take…
- May 28th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The Underlying Problems in World Trade
Regular readers will know that I am very cynical about the talk of recovery in the Western economies. I recently posted on the optimism for the US economy, and pointed out the many indicators that sug…
- May 21st, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The World is Changed - We are Starting to see How...
One of the themes of this blog has long been that there is a fundamental shift in the world economy. I had expected the shift to become visible a couple of months ago, predicting a £GB and $US collap…
- May 19th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Inflation, Deflation And Printing Money in the UK
Many of the readers from the UK may have been seeing news of the 'deflation' in the UK economy. A typical piece can be found in the Times as follows: Deflation tightened its grip on the economy last m…
- May 15th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Reproduction of a deleted Telegraph article
In my last post I linked to an article in the Telegraph that has since been deleted by the Telegraph. Lefty Peep, one of the regular commentators, has kindly linked to a site here (called Zero Hedge)…
- May 14th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
China, the RMB and the $US
For a long while I have been discussing the economic shift of power to the East, in particular the rise of China as the potential major economic power. I have been fairly confident of my analysis, and…
- May 9th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Lies, Lies, Lies
My aim in this blog has largely been to give my best and most rational perspective on the reality of the economic situation. I have tried (and I hope) mostly succeeded in avoiding emotive and partisan…
- May 6th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
The US Economy: A Brief Review
With so much going on in the world at this moment in time, it is difficult to pick a particular subject about which to write. Having reviewed the state of China many times, I thought it might be time…
- May 4th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Guest Article: Economics and Ethics
Introduction:I mentioned in previous notes on posts that one of the regular commentators, 'Lord Keynes', would be given the opportunity to post on the blog. Lord Keynes is one of the regular commentat…
- April 30th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Optimism and Economics
I recently wrote about the surge of optimism in the press regarding the world economy and the Economist magazine has recently detailed the number of press mentions of 'green shoots of recovery'. The E…
- April 25th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Finally, The Mainstream Media 'Get it'....
I have already published two posts recently, but could not resist a further post. I have been reading the Sunday editions and it has become apparent that the mainstream media is finally waking up. The…
- April 24th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
China as the World Economic Power?
When I first wrote a post on this blog devoted to China in July of last year, I emphasised how opaque China was as an economy. For example, I suggested that the housing construction boom might be a bu…
- April 23rd, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
2009 Budget Madness....
I have a curious streak of optimism that somehow the economic policy insanity will be ended. At some point, I keep thinking, the politicians will 'get it', then knuckle down and face the reality of of…
- April 16th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Defeat is in the Air......
I recently wrote about a Time magazine article, in which they gave the delusional argument that the financial crisis is over. I do not have a great deal of respect for Time magazine but, in one respec…
- April 12th, 2009
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markaavis has posted a new entry on: Cynicus Economicus
Wealth Destruction and Government Policy
I had not planned to post again so soon after publishing two articles in quick succession, but a recent article has been nagging away at me for the last couple of days. The article comes from The Time…
