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- December 16th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
US Dollar Correlations Breaking Down
Over the past year one of the biggest themes has been to short the US Dollar and go long anything that is considered risky. If you bought stocks, any grade of corporate bond, commodities, even real…
- December 10th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Is It Time To Buy The US Dollar?
Yesterday we wrote about how we feel that the Euro is headed lower due to overvaluation, the technical picture, and market positioning. In light of that we thought that we would show the technical p…
- December 9th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Is It Finally Time To Short The Euro?
We have been bearish on the EUR/USD for some time now. Some investors are convinced that the USD is going down forever and that the US is the next Zimbabwe. The reality is that while the United St…
- November 19th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Is The Recovery Slowing Down?
We have heard about the so called economic recovery for months now and while it is true that markets are higher we have our doubts that any of this optimism is seeping into the real economy. Because…
- November 18th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Interest Rates and the MOVE Index
We keep hearing that long term Treasury Bonds are going to tank and that we need to get short before they fall off a cliff. While this may very well happen, we doubt that it occurs anytime soon. W…
- November 13th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
The Euro Is Overvalued
One of our major themes here at The Macro Trader over the past two years has been to short Europe. We mean that in a general sense as we have been short Spain and Italy off and on for over a year an…
- November 12th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Real Returns, The Pension Fund Crisis, and Buy and Hold
One of the largest problems that seems to be getting little attention is that of the pension fund crisis. While it has yet to hit in earnest it is definitely upon us. The basic problem is that due…
- November 10th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Did China Buy Too Much Copper?
There is some interesting news out of China that they may in fact re-export some of their copper stockpiles. Here is the link to the Bloomberg story “China May Re-Export Copper on Stockpiles.&…
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Macro Trading Using Relative Strength
Since the start of our newsletter we have been using a relative strength table that looked at Fidelity Select Sector Funds to show what industry groups are leading and which groups are lagging. The…
- October 16th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
G-10 Interest Rate Trends
While a lot has been made of the RBA raising Australia’s short term rates over the last week the fact is that most of the world is not doing quite as well. Whereas Australia actually has some…
- October 8th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
One Question, One Sentence Answer, and One Chart
Why are bonds going up at the same time that gold is climbing? Real yields are the highest that they have been since the late 1980’s and the third highest in the last 100 years, investors expect…
- October 7th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Macro Trading vs SP500 1997-September 2009
A lot is made of relative returns and how one strategy or fund does against the SP500. While not the best benchmark for something like Global Macro it is nonetheless the benchmark that everyone is m…
- October 1st, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Give Me Fuel Give Me Fire
Gimme fuel, gimme fire, gimme that which I desire, Can’t fight the need for speed, I’m loose, I’m clean, I’m burning lean and mean, and mean. Ignite the open trail, Excite, exh…
- September 11th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Is Risk Dead? Or Is This A Bear Market Junk Rally?
In our last post we discussed how we at The Macro Trader think that risk is vastly under-priced. We looked at several different volatility indexes as well as Bill Luby and VixandMore.com’s Jun…
- September 2nd, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Volatility Indexes, Risk Appetite, Mispriced Risk, And Where We Think We Are Headed
If over the past six months or so it has seemed as if you were partying like it was 1999 it might be time to reevaluate your stance. One thing that we have been taking a closer look at lately is the…
- August 5th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Global Macro Trading
After being the largest hedge fund strategy in 1990 representing 71% of the overall hedge fund assets global macro has shrunk and now only represents about 15% of total assets. While most people ass…
- July 19th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Port Data, Green Shoot or a Weed?
If you have been following port data you no doubt saw the large spike in March of both inbound and outbound volume, and then a bit of continuation in April and May. A lot of people, both mainstream…
- July 16th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Global Interest Rate Trends
One of our favorite, as well as one of the best indicators that investors can follow is that of interest rates. Since we are global macro traders we follow interest rates across the globe for every…
- July 9th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Debt Deflation and the Japanese Yen
In our last post we discussed our views on deflation and how it will be around longer then most investors think. Most people are stuck on the idea that hyper inflation is just around the corner…
- June 27th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Deflation And What We Are Doing About It
We decided that it was worth sharing our views of the inflation/deflation debate with all of our readers. In our weekly newsletter we are already positioned to take advantage of some of the current…
- June 16th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Our Macro View On Treasury Bonds
Long term Treasury yields have been in a 30 year downtrend. As you can see in the chart below we are testing this downtrend line right now. 30-Year Treasury Yield Why are yields rising? There are…
- June 1st, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
The Carry Trade and Volatility
In our ETF based newsletter, the carry trade is one of the strategies that we employ. For those unfamiliar with the carry trade, you are essentially trading the interest rate differentials of differ…
- May 29th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Global Interest Rates and the Bond Vigilantes
Ever since the Treasury bubble popped at the beginning of the year we have seen the record low rates on the 10-Year go from 2.03% all the way to a high of 3.75 on Thursday. All of this in spite of t…
- May 22nd, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Where Did All The Contango Go?
For the first few months of the year West Texas Crude Oil was in an extreme contango situation. In fact it got as high as 20% just four months out. Looking at the 4-month contango/backwardization…
- May 21st, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
EWY South Korea ETF
One of our current positions is EWY the South Korean ETF. We went long a few weeks ago in our model portfolio based on the trend, valuation, and economic characteristics of South Korean stocks. EWY-S…
- May 14th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
GLD Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF
We were long precious metals coming into 2009 as gold, silver, and even platinum were climbing higher. Eventually we got stopped out as the group consolidated for the next three months. The last t…
- May 8th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
UNG Natural Gas ETF
In our newsletter this week we went long some UNG-Natural Gas and it is working out well. The long term supply and demand characteristics were very favorable around the recent lows and we had a good…
- May 6th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
A Simple SP500 Timing Model
We track hundreds of different economic, fundamental, technical, sentiment, and cycle indicators. Some are stand alone and only help us discern particular situations while others are full blown timi…
- April 30th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Potential Inflation Trades
Tuesday the Fed came out and said that they will not be expanding their quantitative easing operations. They claim that things are looking good enough that they do not need to do more. Of course w…
- April 28th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Is Global Trade Heating Up? Or Is It Just Leveling Out?
One of the best indicators to see how the global economy is doing is to just look at the CRB index. While we don’t expect it to be hitting new highs anytime soon, it would be nice to see it mo…
- April 24th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
XLY Consumer Discretionary ETF
Today’s post is short but as they say a picture is worth a thousand words, and sometimes even more. In our subscriber area we have a detailed analysis of the consumer and consumer related stoc…
- April 23rd, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Weekly US Crude Inventory
Following up yesterdays post regarding what we see happening in the crude oil market we were happy to see the inventory numbers come out this morning and once again confirm what we have been seeing, n…
- April 22nd, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Oil, Rig Counts, and Contango
In our subscriber letter this week one of the topics that we discussed was the production destruction as seen in the rig count data provided by BHI-Baker Hughes. They provide weekly oil rig data for…
- April 16th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
Port Traffic Rebounds….Sort of
Over on the Calculated Risk blog we saw today how they were talking about the rebound in port data using Los Angeles port data. Since we track the LA and Long Beach ports (they both publish data on t…
- April 15th, 2009
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trademacro has posted a new entry on: The Macro Trader
SP500 Down Swings
Here is a chart of all of the downswings of 10% or more (OK so one is only -9.96%) Click to enlarge. SP500 Down Swings of -10% Happy Trading, Dave@TheMacroTrader.com Bookmark To
